Seven-year fall in violent crime ends

Violent crime remained steady last year for the first time since 2008, research has found.

A study by the University of Cardiff’s Violence Research Group looked at data from 91 hospitals across England and Wales, and found an estimated 210,215 people needed treatment following violence in 2015.

This is a decrease of 1,299 on previous findings, and because figures have dropped by 102,818 since 2010, it marks the first time there was no significant change in seven years.

Professor Jonathan Shepherd, director of the University’s Violence Research group and lead author of the report, said: “After successive annual falls in overall levels of violence, this is the first time since 2008 violence in England and Wales serious enough to result in hospital treatment shows no real change.

“This finding is also consistent with the latest report from the Crime Survey for England and Wales which also found that rates of violent incidents were no different in the year ending September 2015, compared with the previous 12 months.

“It is possible that the long steady decline in violence in England and Wales has come to an end.”

The study, now in its 16th year, found men were more than twice as likely as women to receive hospital treatment following injury as a result of violence.

Serious violence affecting children and young adults also decreased by nine per cent and four per cent respectively compared with 2014, while violence against people aged over 51 rose by eight per cent.

However, these findings contradict police recorded figures for violence against the person, which increased by 27 per cent in the year ending September 2015.

This included a 16 per cent rise in violence with injury.

The researchers say police data is unreliable due to changes in reporting trends and recording practices.

They added that installing CCTV cameras in ‘intervention cities’ led to an 11 per cent increase in police recording of violence, but a three per cent decrease in violence-related hospital attendances.

“It is clear that police records should not be used to measure trends in violence,” the report said.

While the study did not look at specific reasons for why the decline might have stopped, researchers suggested funding cuts to CCTV and crime analysis as potential factors.

Prof Shepherd added: “Public health practitioners and policy makers responsible for tackling community violence in England and Wales need to take note and consider refreshing current violence prevention initiatives, especially if trends in 2016 are similar.”