PSNI chief constable warns of ‘stark choices’ due to budget shortfall
The chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) has warned that “stark choices” will need to be made as a consequence of the proposed police budget allocation.
Simon Byrne warned that the proposed budget allocation “falls significantly short of the funding necessary simply to maintain current numbers or service levels”.
He said the draft budgetary settlement for policing projects an operating shortfall of £226 million over the next three years.
This leaves the “potential scenario” of a reduction in resourcing of 1,000 officers by 2025, said Mr Byrne in his latest Accountability Report to the Northern Ireland Policing Board.
The three-year budget for the region, published by the Northern Ireland Executive in December, is currently out for consultation.
“At 67 per cent of the total Justice Budget, the £14.8 million allocation for police service staffing is nowhere near sufficient to maintain officer numbers, particularly in the context of a £14.6 million (or two per cent) cut,” said Mr Byrne.
“Whilst opportunities for saving are being explored in non-pay areas, due to the non-recurrent funding of officer posts, pressures will crystallise in our headcount.
“The impacts on policing will be stark. Real consequences will be felt in service delivery, resilience and modernisation, with stark choices as to how to prioritise demand and manage risk in the coming years.
“Longer-term impacts include recruitment and representation, the policing response to non-urgent incidents and the investigation of crime.
“Public confidence and victim satisfaction will inevitably be affected.”
Mr Byrne added: “The proposed baseline of £760 million is less than the equivalent budget for the current year, which was £772 million, now supplemented by the January Monitoring allocation. In total, draft budget proposals create pressures of some £226 million across the three-year period, just to stand still.
“Simply to maintain headcount at the current level, of 7,100 officers and 2,580 staff, introduces significant financial pay pressures going forward.”,
As an immediate step to mitigate further financial pressure in 2022/23, Mr Byrne said the PSNI has taken the decision to defer the planned student officer recruitment intake for March. While the planned intake of 85 student officers in March would have achieved a headcount of 7,100 officers, Mr Byrne said it would equate to committed additional costs of around £4-5 million in the 2022/23 financial year.
“Until such times as we receive certainty on the agreed budget settlement for policing, it is considered prudent, as a precautionary measure, not to incur an unsustainable recurring financial commitment of that order,” he added.
“It is, however, important to reinforce that, in the event of easement or remedy under the final budget settlement, measures are in place to ensure we are in a position to accelerate recruitment intakes to maintain operational capability.”
Mr Byrne said work was “well under way” to assess the options and potential impact of delivering within the draft allocations, but “the support of the Board will be critical in securing a settlement which is more sustainable and delivers for communities”.
“The stark reality is that the proposed draft budget allocation falls significantly short of the funding necessary simply to maintain current numbers or service levels,” said Mr Byrne.
“Year one effects will be gradual but while we will need to innovatively explore how to improve officer and staff productivity by 2023, policing will look and feel different.
“If the proposed budget remains unchanged, it will lead to a smaller police service, providing more limited services and less able to keep people safe.
“It will not be possible to find adequate savings without significant reductions in staffing, with up to 1,000 fewer police officers in communities by 2025 and attendant reduction in police staff.
“A number of difficult decisions will be required to achieve a balanced budget.”